Eleven major brands have all independently discovered that British drinkers want their beer at exactly 3.4% ABV. What an incredible coincidence.
Foster’s, John Smith’s, Carlsberg, Coors, Sol, Grolsch, Greene King IPA, Dark Star Hophead, Rekorderlig, and now Caffrey’s brand new stout have all landed at exactly the same strength: 3.4% ABV.
Not 3.3%. Not 3.5%. Exactly 3.4%.
You might think this represents some profound insight into British drinking habits, carefully researched through focus groups and market analysis. Or you might notice that 3.4% sits precisely 0.1% below the UK government’s alcohol duty threshold, where tax suddenly jumps by 126% for draught products.
I know which one I’d put money on.
The Magic Number
Here’s how alcohol duty works for draught beer as of February 2025:
3.5% to 8.4% ABV: £19.45 per litre of pure alcohol
Cross that threshold and your duty more than doubles.
When you brew a 3.4% pint instead of a 4% pint, you save approximately 11p in duty per pint. Multiply that by millions of pints and you’re looking at the kind of money that makes finance directors weep with joy.
So when Molson Coors describes their new Caffrey’s Black Stout at 3.4% as offering “a strong value proposition,” they mean it saves them £10.87 per litre in duty. The trade press didn’t even bother with euphemisms, calling it “tax-efficient 3.4% ABV.”
They’re not even pretending anymore.
The Health Claims Are Spectacular
The thing about corporate PR is it requires a certain shamelessness. Take Heineken’s announcement when they reduced John Smith’s from 3.6% to 3.4% in February 2024:
“We have made the decision to brew John Smith’s Extra Smooth ale at a slightly lower ABV.. aligned to our long-held position of promoting moderation. This would remove around 56 million units of alcohol for the UK market, supporting public health.”
Beautiful. Heartwarming. Just one detail: they simultaneously raised keg prices by 1.7%. The duty saving on off-trade sales alone? £14.5 million.
That’s £14.5 million pocketed while talking about your liver.
The Caffrey’s Masterclass
Molson Coors just launched Caffrey’s Black Stout, their first stout since buying the brand in 2002. They’re entering the booming stout market (31% more drinkers since 2023) with a product specifically designed to undercut Guinness.
The strength they chose? Have a guess.
The timing is exquisite. Diageo announces a minimum 5.2% price increase for Guinness. Within weeks, here comes Caffrey’s at 3.4%, positioned as a “value alternative” at a “tax-efficient” ABV.
It’s not about your health. It’s not about moderation. It’s about looking at the stout boom and thinking: “How do we grab market share while paying the absolute minimum duty?”
The answer is 3.4%.
What You’re Actually Paying For
Reducing ABV is fine if you’re paying less. That’s basic economics. Except you’re not paying less.
Foster’s drops from 4% to 3.7%, saves 3p per can, raises keg prices 15.8%. Sol drops from 4.2% to 3.4% while Heineken announces a 2.97% price hike. The pattern is so consistent it’s almost impressive.
You’re paying the same (or more) for less alcohol, while brewers pocket the duty saving and talk about your wellbeing.
The Drinkflation Calculator
What Your Brewer Actually Saved
What You’re Really Paying For
What Price Should Be (If They Were Honest)
The Pattern
Here’s every major reformulation from the past 18 months:
| Beer | Old ABV | New ABV | Savings/Pint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foster’s | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5p |
| John Smith’s | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4p |
| Coors Light | 4.0% | 3.4% | 11p |
| Carlsberg Pilsner | 3.8% | 3.4% | 7p |
| Sol | 4.2% | 3.4% | 13p |
| Grolsch | 4.0% | 3.4% | 11p |
| Dark Star Hophead | 3.8% | 3.4% | 7p |
| Greene King IPA | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4p |
| Rekorderlig S&L | 4.0% | 3.4% | 11p |
| Caffrey’s Black Stout | New launch | 3.4% | 13p vs 4.2% |
Every single one landed at 3.4%. Different breweries. Different beer styles. Different starting points. All arrived at the exact same number.
It’s almost like they’re all using the same calculator. The one with “duty threshold minus 0.1%” programmed in.
What This Means
I’m not against lower ABV beer. Drink what you like. If breweries genuinely want to offer lighter options for consumers who want them, brilliant.
But that’s not what this is.
This is a coordinated industry response to a duty change, dressed up as consumer choice and public health. It’s breweries saving hundreds of millions while prices stay flat or rise. It’s launching a “value” stout at precisely the ABV that maximizes margins.
And the really insulting part? They think we won’t notice the pattern. That we’ll nod along when they talk about “balanced lifestyles” while spending millions on marketing to sell us more of their now-weaker, same-priced product.
The UK brewing industry has found its magic number. Not because consumers demanded it. Not because of health concerns. But because at 3.4%, they can maximize volume, minimize duty, and still call it beer.
The gold rush is on. And you’re the one paying for it.